- Growth in global consumption of meat proteins over the next decade is projected to increase by 14% by 2030 compared to the base period average of 2018-2020, driven largely by income and population growth.
- Protein availability from beef, pork, poultry, and sheep meat is projected to grow 5.9%, 13.1%, 17.8% and 15.7% respectively by 2030.
- In high income countries, however, changes in consumer preferences, ageing, and slower growing populations will lead to a levelling off in per capita meat consumption and a move towards the consumption of higher valued meat cuts.
- Globally, poultry meat is expected to represent 41% of all the protein from meat sources in 2030, an increase of 2 percentage points when compared to the base period.
- The global shares of other meat products are lower: beef (20%), pigmeat (34%), and sheep meat (5%).
- Per capita meat consumption in China is projected to return to its longer term trend by 2023, as the ASF impact on domestic pigmeat prices abates. As a result, one-third of the overall increase in meat consumption over the projection period is attributed to pigmeat.
- China will account for 70% of the increase in pigmeat consumption from the reference period to 2030. In light of these factors, global meat consumption per capita is projected to increase 0.3% p.a. to 35.4 kg in retail weight equivalent by 2030. Over one-half of this increase is due to higher per capita consumption of poultry meat.
- International meat trade will expand in response to growing demand from countries in Asia and the Near East, where production will remain largely insufficient to meet demand. Import demand in several middle and high income Asian countries has been steadily increasing in recent years due to a shift toward diets that include higher quantities of animal products.
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Source oecd.org